The Ballon d’Or winner will be announced in London on 26 October, and bookmakers have Spain winger Lamine Yamal and England captain Harry Kane very close together as the clear favourites. Yamal won La Liga with Barcelona and the World Cup with Spain, while Kane scored 73 goals for German champions Bayern Munich and England. Eight-time winner Lionel Messi, of Argentina and Inter Miami, and Real Madrid’s France forward Kylian Mbappe are the other probable candidates. Paris St-Germain’s back-to-back European champions could also feature in the vote.
We asked several of our football experts who they think should take home the award.
Lamine Yamal
European football expert Guillem Balague believes the award will not go to a player from outside PSG or Spain. He said Mbappe is gone from contention, and that the PSG players are so numerous that the vote will be split between them. He argued that only one Spaniard deserves it: Yamal, who has delivered individual performances, collective trophies and an undeniable aura. “He’s going to win it,” Balague said.
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
European football expert Julien Laurens thinks Kvaratskhelia was the best player in Europe last season, especially in the Champions League. He pointed to the penalty he won in the final, his goals in both semi-finals, and his strikes in the quarter-final and the last 16. Laurens said he deserves the award for being the best player in the world up to the World Cup. However, he expects Yamal to win because of his entertaining, spectacular style, even though Yamal did not shine at the World Cup and was knocked out early in the Champions League with Barcelona. “It should be Kvaratskhelia,” he said.
Former Liverpool and Blackburn full-back Stephen Warnock expects Yamal to win for helping Spain lift the World Cup. He named Michael Olise as another contender but said his personal pick is Kvaratskhelia, whom he called unbelievable. He does not think Kvaratskhelia will get the votes because Georgia did not qualify for the World Cup.
Athletic reporter Rory Smith predicts the award will go to Yamal, because it usually goes to the player who has won the biggest trophy, and this year that is the World Cup. He said Yamal was not necessarily Spain’s most important player, but his fame and talent will carry him. Smith would pick Kvaratskhelia himself, calling him the most exciting player in European club football for some time and a valuable part of the PSG side that retained the Champions League.
Harry Kane
Former England striker Alan Shearer says Kane should win, citing his sensational numbers over the last 12 to 18 months at Bayern and with England. Former England midfielder Danny Murphy agrees, describing Kane’s goalscoring as relentless and brilliant. He said Kane has had one of the best seasons of his career and has been the best centre-forward in the world for the past year.
Former Tottenham and Crystal Palace forward Andros Townsend lists the evidence. Kane scored 73 goals in 65 games, 36 of them in the Bundesliga. He led Bayern to the league and cup double, scored 14 Champions League goals as they reached the semi-finals, and scored six goals at the World Cup as England reached the semi-finals. “He has had an outstanding year,” Townsend said.
Former England striker Ellen White admits it is a tough call but says she will go with her heart. She would love to see Kane win, despite England not winning the World Cup. She acknowledged that Yamal had a few injuries but noted he won the World Cup and said she expects him to win the Ballon d’Or one day. She also praised Olise as phenomenal.
Norwegian football journalist Lars Sivertsen would also like to see Kane win, calling him a real leader at Bayern who never causes trouble and is a role model. He wonders, however, whether Kane’s low-key character works against him. “The Ballon d’Or is a popularity contest,” Sivertsen said. “I love that he doesn’t do all that but maybe he should.”